Beware polls, but I love them.

The only credential I have to post on presidential elections is I'm old. I can remember in pretty good detail every presidential election since 1948. So some comments on polls.

We all remember or have read about Truman V. Dewey in 1948. Gallup, and I believe Roper, were the only two nationally recognized polls. They both blew it. Dewey was so far ahead they reasoned why poll the two weeks before the election. So what did they and we learn. CAMPAIGNS DO MATTER. Several elections since'48 have shown this.

Also, of course, POLL UP TO THE LAST DAY.

Today with the proliferation of polls, it's best to taka a poll of polls. They'll all probably be close by election day, but still it's a good thing to check an average of the polls.

Be alert for prejudice. Some polls put R or D after their name to show the runners of the poll are definitely working for one party or another. Some are on one side or the other but don't tell you that. Rasmussen, for example, is run by a far right Republican and is endorsed by Larry Kudlow an equally far right market analyst. It is only fair to say this poll has been pretty accurate at the end (election day) but shows some amazing results before, making it possible the poll is trying to shape opinion rather than measure it.

Watch out for tricks. Zogby used exit polls in 2004 to adjust it findings, showing a big Democratic sweep. Fooled Ted Kennedy and ruined a lot of Kerry election parties.

I think we all love polls. They're a lot of fun. But you have to watch out. They all have a rather low bar to jump. It's called the 'margin of error.' They just have to get close, which most do. Recently Gallup crossed the line a little by putting out three resuls within a day. Two polls had Obama ahead; one had McCain by 4 points. Ah, the secret. Margin of error. The two Obama ahead polls had a margin or error of plus/minus 2.5 percent. The McCain ahead poll had margin of error plus/minus/ 6 percent. No one to my knowledge in the media caught this. Happy polling.