THE FIRST PREDICTION!!!!!!

If I were to compare this election to a previous presidential election, the 1960 race between Nixon and Kennedy would, at this stage seem the best comparison. Sure there were plenty of differences but also some striking similarities.

Of course, the obvious parallel is the fact that Kennedy was only the second catholic nominated by a major party and Obama is the first African-American. Al Smith, a catholic, had been nominated by the Democrats in 1928 but was resoundingly defeated---many thought a major factor was Smith catholicism (including people in my own family). This big loss by Smith made many Democrsts wary of nominating a catholic. But in 1960 the Democrats went with Kennedy. Many Democrats thought the religious factor would be decisive for Nixon's election.

The 1960 race had another similarity. Nixon's campaign was based on experience. Kennedy theme was 'let get America moving again', that is, change.

But to me the deciding factor in that extremely close election was the persona of each candidate. In other words who had the most appealing persona or image. Most historians think the first presidential television debate ever between the two candidates was the turning point. Nixon was favored in the election but the debate showed that Kennedy was his equal in debating and--- this is important---Kennedy looked better.

Now we see some similrities to 2008. Obama is the first African-American to be nominated by the two major parties, as Kennedy was the second catholic. McCain is running on 'experience' and Obama on 'change.' But I think the first debate of 2008 will be decisive. Obama has the easier task. Republicans are already saying McCain will outclass Obama in the debate. But all Obama has to do is seem "equal" not better than his opponent. In other words, a draw means Obama wins this debate.

On the appearance factor, I believe Obama has the clear advantage. Youth versus age. Better looking versus average looking. Better speaking skills versus poor speaking skills. The issues are important, yes, and McCain has the advantage of a simpler view of the "social" issues, which issues were not a factor in 1960, and the Republicans have learned how to use these emotional themes to their advantage.

Either candidate could make a big gaffe in the debate. But both will be so well prepared that this is not a great possibility.

So an early prediction. I'll go out on a limb. A very close election with Obama the winner, based to a great degree on his more appealing personality. Kennedy had the "jumpers"." Obama has the potentiality of attracting "jumpers" , or their equivalent. THIS IS THE EARLIEST PREDICION YOU HAVE SEEN. Of course I have the right to change, or be within the margin of error. Take that pollster wimps:).