Obama. Against the Wind

Often when we look at presidential elections, we concentrate so hard on the particulr race we are in, we tend to overlook and not analize the historical trends.

In my opinion since the 1864 election to today--2008--we have had three, yes only three, major trends or eras. And I think a brief look at these three show, this year, why Obama is not 'running away' with the race. This is because we are not filtering the current race through the historical prism. Each era or trend has an overall theme for one party or the other, and while a particular election may go against the trend, there are always some specific circumtances that allow this to happen. In brief then:

Era one. 1860 to 1932. The Civil War, the bloody shirt, made the Republican party the dominant party for these 73 years. Yes, there were two Democrats elected to two terms, Cleveland and Wilson. Wilson, it should be noted, one his first term due to the fact that T.Roosevelt and Taft split the Republican vote enough and allowed Wilson to be elected as a minority president. He was re-elected under the spectre of war ('He kept us out of war') but by the slimest of margins over Charles Evans Hughes. (Hughes went to bed on election night thinking he ad won the presidency, only to wake up finding he had lost.) Cleveland is a different matter, but it is good to notice he was very conservative president, almost a Republican.

Era two. 1933 to 1979. The great depression was so traumatic and Roosevelt's coming made the Dems the dominant party for these years. Eisenhower won two terms as the Republican, indeed the nations, War hero. A very moderate Republican. Nixon, yes a moderate on issues, won twice, barely squeaking by Humphrey and slaughtering McGovern, a Democrat of the left . Carter barely won against Ford and the Nixon pardon. The tide was beginning to change.

Era three. 1980 to 2007 -. The cold war, and the Repubs as the party of a strong military and defense, and the beginning of ''social issue' politics, have made this party dominant in presidential elections. Clinton , an incredible politician, a southerner, charismatic, and moving to the middle won two terms. The second against Dole; much closer than 'expected' against the well---unattractive as you can be candidate Bob Dole. We are still in this era. National defense, the terrorism threat, the totally established "social issue" bloc, give the Repubs the historical advantage. Sure, the economy is bad, but compared to the Great Depression, not that bad. Proof of Repub. era: An almost nobody (my prejudice) wins against a sitting Vice-president in good economic times and wins a second term against the 'Frenchman' Kerry.

So Obama is facing the historical "winds." The fact he is even in the race is a puzzle. Running against a war 'hero' who fought the commies, a very strong national defense man, a, as of lately, far right social conservative, Obama, amazingly has a small lead as of this time, it appears. But can he win. The historical winds are strong and hard to buck. We'll just have to see.